Potential Detroit Pistons Offseason Targets: Cam Thomas

How could the 22 year old for the Nets fit Monty Williams offensive vision?

As the season comes to a close and we look back with hindsight on the performances of both players and coach, one glaring takeaway emerges. Given that Jaden Ivey began the season coming off the bench behind Killian Hayes, has not frequently been prioritized as a scorer in the starting lineup, has not frequently been staggered with Cade in the rotation, and appears to operate similar actions as Evan Fournier does when they are respectively on the court, it stands to reason that Ivey may not fit perfectly into the plans Head Coach Monty Williams has for this Pistons team.

Right or wrong, so long as Williams holds the whistle, it’s his show. Locating and adding players to this roster that fit Williams’s vision is the shortest path to immediate success. This will be the first article of a series exploring potential targets for the Pistons this summer that fit the archetypal mold outlined by Monty Williams’s scheme this season. Taking the usage of current players as criterion, this series will identify external players that would excel in this context.

Cam Thomas, 22-year-old 6’4 SG for the Brooklyn Nets, scores the basketball. This is undeniably his first and second concern on the floor. However, he’s not a chucker, and he scores the ball with relative efficiency for his young age. Thomas shoots 64% at the rim on 150 attempts this season, and 43% in close range (3 - 10ft) on 238 attempts. This compared to Jaden Ivey’s 65% on 198 attempts at the rim and 43% on 217 attempts from close range. Ivey surely gets to the basket more frequently than does Thomas, but Thomas is a far more talented shooter than is Jaden Ivey. This season, Ivey has shot 32% from three with 87% of those makes being assisted, while Thomas has shot 36% with only 70% of his makes having been assisted. Thomas is a better shooter and can self-create threes reliably. Broadly, Thomas has a more varied shot chart. He shoots, and makes, shots at all three levels, while Ivey's attempts are constrained to at the rim and beyond the three-point line.

Thomas:

• Source: Basketball Reference

Ivey:

• Source: Basketball Reference

While Cam Thomas has a reputation as just a scorer, he isn’t a selfish player. This season, he has averaged three assists per game while Jaden Ivey has averaged 3.7 assists per game. Both players see about the same number of touches per game, with Thomas at 54 touches and Ivey 46 (for reference, Cade Cunningham averages 80 touches per game). Though Ivey surely has more playmaking talent, and certainly a greater desire to create for others, they both playmake at roughly the same rate: 0.08 assists per touch for Ivey and 0.06 assists per touch for Thomas. 

The role that Jaden Ivey has played this season has heavily featured pick-and-roll ball handling, spot-up shooting, and fast break opportunities. In what I assume is shocking to absolutely nobody reading this, he’s struggled in all three. Roughly three-fourths of Ivey’s plays are equally split between those three types (p&r, spot-up, transition). In those playtypes, Jaden Ivey has performed in the 49th percentile for pick-and-roll ball handlers, the 8th percentile for spot-up shooting and the 51st percentile for fast break opportunities.

If it can be assumed that Monty Williams strongly prefers a shooting guard who can excel in all of pick-and-roll ball handling, spot-ups, and fast break opportunities, the Pistons must either rely on Jaden Ivey to substantially improve in those playtypes or bring in outside talent who can.

Cam Thomas performs at roughly similar levels as Ivey in the pick-and-roll and transition -- 53rd and 40th percentile respectively. However, Thomas excels as a spot-up player, grading out in the 84th percentile per NBA.com. As for frequency, about 30% of Thomas’s plays are as a pick-and-roll ball handler, 20% as a spot-up player and 16% in transition.

That Cam Thomas is a far more dangerous spot-up player would represent a significant improvement for this Pistons rotation. Next to Cade Cunningham, it can be expected that Thomas would see an increase in the frequency of his spot-up opportunities, likely at the expense of his isolation opportunities (67th percentile on 15% of his playtypes. Jaden Ivey currently sees only 7% of his playtypes attributed to isolation). In an ideal world, Thomas would be asked to increase his volume of away from the ball screen actions as well. Currently, both Jaden Ivey and Cam Thomas see fairly infrequent usage in these playtypes, but Thomas vastly outperforms Ivey, grading out in the 55th percentile and Ivey the 20th in these actions.

Defense would be a concern. Even against the relatively low standard set by Jaden Ivey, Cam Thomas has struggled to guard the perimeter. He lacks focus off the ball, can struggle to stay in front at times, and appears stiff while navigating screens. Though he does average fewer fouls per game than Ivey (2.2 to 2.8). In basic counting stats, Ivey averages 1.3 combined steals and blocks (stocks) per game while Thomas averages only 0.9 stocks. Thomas is a solid, yet unspectacular, athlete. He’s strong in his base and agile enough to create space for jump shots and around the rim. Thomas is a strong guard and seems to hold his line on drives to the rim as well. That said, Ivey is a far better athlete. Thomas would represent a material decrease in both athletic ability and perimeter defense should he replace Jaden Ivey in the starting lineup.

Even so, Cam Thomas is a player who would perform significantly better in the role Monty Williams has asked Jaden Ivey to fill this season. Thomas outpaces Ivey as a shooter and pick-and-roll ball handler, essentially providing a credible upgrade to just under half of Jaden Ivey’s shot volume. And his ability to create his own shot at all three levels would also be a welcome addition to the roster. Defensive concerns notwithstanding, Cam Thomas is a much better fit within this offense than is Jaden Ivey. 

At this time, the Brooklyn Nets need a guard who can break down defenses and playmake out of that. Cam Thomas is not that guy, but Jaden Ivey is. It seems likely that the Nets could have exploratory interest in Jaden Ivey, and if so, the Pistons would be wise to target Cam Thomas in return. All told, if we assume that the role Jaden Ivey has played this season is the role Monty Williams wishes his shooting guard to play next to Cade Cunningham, Cam Thomas ought to be on the shortlist of players who can excel in this system.